Some gay political experts forecasted the end of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign this week after she faced several new setbacks.
“I think she’s at the end of her rope,” said Dan Pinello, a City University of New York government professor. “I really do. There’s nothing more she can do. It’s over.”
Experts said Clinton’s estimated 14-point loss to Sen. Barack Obama in the North Carolina primary was a massive blow to her campaign.
“I think it hurt her pretty badly,” said Hastings Wyman, editor of the Southern Political Report. “They gave it everything they had — the governor endorsing her. And she still lost big.”
Also problematic, Pinello said, was Clinton’s slim win in Indiana, where early returns showed she took 51 percent of the vote.
Pinello said Indiana, which allows Republicans to cast ballots in the Democratic primary, might have seen its results skewed by voters who acted on conservative talk radio suggestions to vote for Clinton in hopes of prolonging the Democratic contest.
“Therefore, I would call that a literal tie,” he said. “Not a virtual tie, but a literal tie.”
According to CNN tallies, Obama had 1,584 pledged delegates Wednesday to Clinton’s 1,415. Including superdelegates, Obama had 1,836 delegates to Clinton’s 1,681.
A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to win the Democratic nomination outright. About 220 pledged delegates remain to be won and 270 superdelegates are uncommitted.
Clinton’s delegate deficit follows news that she lent her financially strapped campaign more than $6 million over the last month.
“She still desperately needs money,” Pinello said, “and I’m not sure what kind of convincing pitch she can make to contributors.”
Wyman said although six state primaries remain on the calendar, the race has effectively ended.
“I think Obama is the nominee,” he said. “I think it’s a matter of Clinton finding a graceful way out. She’s done well, and she’s certainly made it a race, but she hasn’t done well enough.”
NEAL LOSES IN N.C. RACE
Also falling short this week was an openly gay U.S. Senate candidate in North Carolina.
Jim Neal lost his primary bid to run against Republican incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole. Neal’s main opponent, veteran state Sen. Kay Hagan, took an estimated 60 percent of the vote to his 18 percent.
“In that Senate race, it’s very clear that Jim Neal’s being gay didn’t help him at all,” Wyman said. “It probably hurt him terribly. It was not an issue, but it was well known.”
Neal did not immediately respond Wednesday to calls for comment.
“I will say that even had he been straight, I think he would have lost,” Wyman said. “You know, he was not an office holder, as was his opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan. I just think he could have done better.”
Although neither the Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund nor the Human Rights Campaign endorsed Neal, Wyman said those were not fatal blows.
“It might have hurt his money,” he said, “but I don’t think those groups have a political force in North Carolina.”
Wyman said Neal was hurt more by his overly ambitious goals, and would have to recalibrate before mounting any future run for office.
“I would choose a smaller office, with a more gay-friendly electorate, something around Chapel Hill or maybe around Charlotte,” he said. “But with 18 percent, I don’t think he has a great political future.”
UPCOMING CONTESTS
Presidential primary attention was shifting this week to Kentucky, Oregon and West Virginia, which hold primaries later this month.
But it’s unclear whether gay issues will figure into those votes. Jordan Palmer, president of the Kentucky Equality Federation, said gay issues generally haven’t been part of the campaign dialogue in his state.
“I’m not seeing a whole lot,” said Palmer, who is gay. “And it’s very disappointing.”
Palmer said the general silence on gay issues is particularly dispiriting because Kentucky “is one of the few places where there are no laws on the books to protect gay people from anything.”
He said although Lexington, the state’s largest city, bars discrimination based on sexual orientation in the areas of employment and housing, he would welcome any additional calls for equality a presidential candidate would make.
“But realistically, there’s not a whole lot a United States president can do in Kentucky,” Palmer said.
Wyman said gay issues were unlikely to figure into the Kentucky or West Virginia primaries because “neither candidate has any interest in raising them at this point.”
“It doesn’t gain them anything at this point, neither candidate,” he said. “You know, gay issues mean a great deal to gay people, and have some support among the liberal voters, generally. But they’re touchy when you talk about the electorate at large.”
Gay issues also could be downplayed in primary discussions in Montana and South Dakota, the final states to vote in the primary process on June 3.
Linda Gryczan, director of Montana Human Rights Network’s equality project, said both campaigns could make the calculated decision that gay issues “aren’t the issues that are going to move the majority.”
And they’d be correct, she said, because more people care about gas prices.
“Where they are on the gas tax is more important to me,” said Gryczan, a lesbian. “Because transportation is a very important issue to me, and the price of gasoline is a very important issue to me.”
Todd Epp, chair of Equality South Dakota’s political action committee, agreed that voters are prioritizing other issues.
“GLBT issues have not been in the forefront of the South Dakota presidential primary,” said Epp, who is straight. “Agriculture, education, the economy, water projects, the war in Iraq and health care are the biggest issues in the state.”
Consequently, Epp and Gryczan said their organizations are focused more on swaying local races than on the presidential campaign.
“Locally,” Gryczan said, “it’s far more important that we maintain a Democratic Senate and that our local representatives and senators will be pro-equality voters.”
ALABAMA EXCITEMENT
Although gay issues aren’t prominent in the remaining primary states, they did make headlines this week in Alabama.
State lawmakers approved Tuesday a bill to add crimes against people because of their sexual orientation to Alabama’s hate crime law.
“It is a very happy day to be gay in Alabama,” Danny Upton, executive director of Equality Alabama. “I’m just almost speechless. This is something that people told us could never happen.”
The bill narrowly passed the House, 46-44, when a Republican lawmaker who had become friends with lesbian state Rep. Patricia Todd backed the proposal.
“We both got elected at the same time,” Todd said. “She sits behind me on the floor, so we talk a lot, and I think she’s just one of those independent-minded people that votes based on her own personal beliefs and not on what the party tells her.”
Todd said the bill, which advanced at the legislative session’s end, was unlikely to see a Senate vote this year.
“But it definitely sets a precedent for next year,” she said, “and then the Senate will pass it as well.”
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