Could 2008 be the year of pro-gay moderates battling for the White House?

Some political observers are predicting just such a scenario, as Democratic and Republican centrists surge in early presidential polls.

Leading contenders on both sides, such as Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), support civil unions and expanding other rights for gay Americans.

But none of the leading Democrats or Republicans expected to pursue the White House support full marriage equality for gay couples. Same-sex marriage supporter Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) announced this month that he would not run for president, despite early expectations that he would run.

Samantha Smoot, political director of the Human Rights Campaign, said presidential contenders should strongly endorse equality to exemplify “their values, their character, whether they’re fair minded, and support equal rights as a bedrock principle.”

Because such core values are defined early, activists said they’re already working with potential presidential candidates.

John Marble, spokesperson for the gay partisan group National Stonewall Democrats, said his organization is working with “a number of leading Democrats” to increase understanding and support of gay issues.

“Democrats need to talk about gay issues in a different manner than they have in the past,” he said.

Activists said the candidates that most effectively court gay voters could reap rewards in the primary and general elections.

“The electorate is so closely divided,” said Patrick Sammon, executive vice president of the gay partisan group Log Cabin Republicans. “Gay and lesbian voters make up about 4 percent of the electorate. That can be the difference between winning and losing.”

Clinton leads Democrats

According to recent polls, Clinton holds a commanding lead over other potential Democratic presidential nominees.

In a poll released last week by the Pew Research Center, Clinton took nearly 40 percent, easily topping all other Democratic contenders, though she has not announced her candidacy. Clinton was re-elected to the Senate from New York this month in a landslide and even won convincingly in conservative upstate areas.

Smoot said Clinton’s campaign would warrant support from gay voters, even if she doesn’t support marriage equality.

“Her own position on that issue seems to be evolving,” Smoot said. “I think that she’s been under pressure from GLBT leaders in New York on the marriage equality issue. But the truth is, if you look at her record in its entirety, she has done a lot to help GLBT Americans as a senator.”

But as the wife of former President Bill Clinton — who signed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996 — Smoot said the senator could be handicapped.

“Like it or not, she’s got that baggage,” Smoot said, “some of it positive, some of it not.”

Marble said it’s unrealistic, though, for voters to expect a flawless candidate.

“People shouldn’t expect the Democratic nominee in 2008 to be perfect on LGBT issues,” he said.

But other potential Democratic nominees hold appeal for gay voters.

Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and John Kerry (D-Mass.), plus former Vice President Al Gore, have HRC scores that equal or surpass Hillary Clinton’s 89 rating. Kerry scored a perfect 100 during the 109th Congress, as did Gore when he was last scored during the 102nd Congress.

Sammon said with such alternatives available, Democrats would do well to consider Clinton.

“I think the bottom line is that Democrats need to make a decision about whether Hillary Clinton could win a general election campaign,” he said.

Republican race open

Unlike the Democratic race, polls do not show a clear Republican frontrunner.

Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) are polling evenly at about 25 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. Both men recently formed exploratory committees, and are expected to announce their candidacies early next year.

Sammon said both men have taken pro-gay stances. McCain bucked his party and voted against amending the U.S. Constitution to ban same-sex marriage, while Giuliani has backed civil unions.

“Obviously, Rudy Giuliani has a very, very strong record on issues of basic fairness for gay and lesbian Americans,” he said.

Giuliani famously moved in with a gay couple during his divorce from his second wife.

But his pro-gay stances could be tempered, Marble said, as the politicians work to secure the Republican nomination.

“There’s no way that someone like Rudy Giuliani can win the nomination without the support and blessing of the anti-gay activists,” he said, “and that’s something he’ll remember.”

Marble also noted McCain was not supportive of gay issues in the 109th Congress, receiving a 33 on the HRC scorecard.

“Sen. McCain is someone who has employed flowery words on our issues in the past,” he said, “but his voting record is ...

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